Who will be the next Heroes of Baseball?
There are players who will definitely join the MLB Hall of Fame after they retire. They’ve already accumulated the necessary stats, played in many All-Star games, and put in their ten years of service. All they have to do is steer clear of scandals and retire to claim their spot in Cooperstown.
With Heroes of Baseball, I attempt to identify all of the future Hall of Famers years before they are actually inducted into the Hall of Fame. But what is the earliest we can identify future Hall of Famers?
In this section, I try to identify future Hall of Famers before the players even arrive in the Major Leagues. I do it by a combination of looking at the history of draft picks, combing through minor league statistics, and profiling the early careers of Hall of Fame players. After combing through years of statistics and data, I’ve found a few patterns. It all boils down to “dominance at an early age among peers” is the best indicator of future success. For hitters, it typically means hitting for a high slugging percentage as one of the youngest players in your league. For pitchers, it’s usually having a low ERA and high strikeouts per nine innings as one of the youngest players in your league.
For many years now, I’ve performed a yearly ritual of analyzing the data and choosing twelve players who I deem most likely to succeed. Here are my raw lists, with the percentage indicating the player’s likelihood of someday being part of a Major League All-Star team.
2023
- 52% Elly De La Cruz
- 50% Dylan Crews
- 44% Wyatt Langford
- 43% Luke Little
- 43% Connor Norby
- 43% Matt McLain
- 42% Junior Caminero
- 40% Paul Skenes
- 36% Noble Meyer
- 35% Marc Church
- 34% Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- 33% Nelson Rada
2022
- 76% Corbin Carroll
- 75% Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- 63% Gunnar Henderson
- 52% Nolan Gorman
- 52% Jackson Holliday
- 50% Ivan Melendez
- 46% Druw Jones
- 44% Osleivis Basabe
- 43% Sal Frelick
- 43% DL Hall
- 43% Brice Turang
- 42% Francisco Álvarez
2021
- 52% Alek Thomas
- 52% Henry Davis
- 44% Gabriel Moreno
- 43% Dylan Coleman
- 43% Ryan Vilade
- 42% Julio Rodriguez
- 40% Kevin Kopps
- 37% Marcelo Mayer
- 36% Kumar Rocker
- 35% Wander Franco
- 35% Shane Baz
- 34% Josh Jung
2020
*Note that in 2020, no minor league games were played due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the only data I had to work with was MLB Draft information.
- 52% Spencer Torkelson
- 46% Heston Kjerstad
- 36% Reid Detmers
- 32% Austin Martin
- 28% Asa Lacy
- 28% Justin Foscue
- 23% Nick Gonzales
- 22% Ed Howard
- 17% Cade Cavalli
- 16% Patrick Bailey
- 15% Max Meyer
- 14% Jordan Walker
2019
- 76% Luis Robert
- 63% Gavin Lux
- 52% Franmil Reyes
- 52% Adley Rutschman
- 46% Bobby Witt Jr.
- 44% Isaac Paredes
- 43% Kevin Padlo
- 43% David McKay
- 43% Ryan Mountcastle
- 37% JJ Bleday
- 36% Jarred Kelenic
- 35% Bryse Wilson
2018
- 76% Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- 52% Trent Grisham
- 50% Andrew Vaughn
- 46% Joey Bart
- 43% Dean Deetz
- 43% Dawel Lugo
- 42% Austin Riley
- 40% Brady Singer
- 37% Nick Madrigal
- 36% Fernando Tatis Jr.
- 35% Touki Toussaint
- 33% Jo Adell
2017
- 76% Ronald Acuna Jr.
- 52% Ryan McMahon
- 52% Royce Lewis
- 50% Brendan McKay
- 44% Austin Hays
- 43% Silvino Bracho
- 43% Willy Adames
- 35% Adalberto Mondesi
- 35% Chance Adams
- 34% Ian Happ
- 33% Shohei Ohtani
- 33% Keibert Ruiz
2016
- 63% Yoan Moncada
- 52% Jeimer Candelario
- 52% Mickey Moniak
- 50% Kyle Lewis
- 50% Seth Beer
- 46% Nick Senzel
- 44% Amed Rosario
- 43% Sam Tuivailala
- 42% Tyler O’Neill
- 36% Cody Bellinger
- 35% Tyler Glasnow
- 34% Austin Hedges
2015
- 52% Dansby Swanson
- 50% Blake Snell
- 50% Andrew Benintendi
- 46% Alex Bregman
- 44% Nick Williams
- 43% Josh Bell
- 43% Robbie Ray
- 43% Ben Gamel
- 35% Rougned Odor
- 33% Alex Verdugo
- 33% Kyle Tucker
- 32% Brendan Rodgers
2014
- 50% A.J. Reed
- 44% Mookie Betts
- 43% Lisalverto Bonilla
- 43% Hernan Perez
- 43% Zach Walters
- 42% Addison Russell
- 37% Kyle Schwarber
- 36% Joey Gallo
- 35% A.J. Cole
- 34% George Springer
- 33% Brady Aiken
- 33% Clint Frazier
2013
- 76% Xander Bogaerts
- 75% Masahiro Tanaka
- 52% Wilmer Flores
- 50% Kris Bryant
- 44% Maikel Franco
- 43% Avisail Garcia
- 43% Brian Moran
- 43% Nick Castellanos
- 42% Javier Baez
- 36% Domingo Santana
- 36% Phillip Bickford
- 35% John Stilson
2012
- 76% Wil Myers
- 52% Anthony Rizzo
- 52% Carlos Correa
- 50% Mike Zunino
- 46% Byron Buxton
- 44% Oswaldo Arcia
- 43% Dan Straily
- 43% Starling Marte
- 43% Chris Parmelee
- 42% Nick Franklin
- 36% Jurickson Profar
- 35% Randall Delgado
2011
- 76% Paul Goldschmidt
- 75% Yu Darvish
- 63% Mike Trout
- 52% Brett Lawrie
- 44% LJ Hoes
- 43% Neil Ramirez
- 43% Ryan Lavarnway
- 42% Vinnie Catricala
- 40% Taylor Jungmann
- 38% Trevor Bauer
- 35% Julio Teheran
- 33% Tommy Joseph
2010
- 52% Bryce Harper
- 50% Hyun Jin Ryu
- 50% Jeremy Hellickson
- 50% Anthony Rendon
- 44% Chris Marrero
- 43% Nick Weglarz
- 43% Michael Pineda
- 43% Freddie Freeman
- 43% Juan Francisco
- 42% Giancarlo Stanton
- 37% Christian Colon
- 36% Eric Hosmer
2009
- 76% Jason Heyward
- 52% Travis Snider
- 46% Dustin Ackley
- 44% Jesus Montero
- 43% Jess Todd
- 43% Austin Jackson
- 43% Fernando Martinez
- 40% Stephen Strasburg
- 37% Tony Sanchez
- 36% Adrian Cardenas
- 36% Drew Storen
- 35% Tommy Hanson
2008
- 63% Matt Wieters
- 52% Travis Denker
- 52% Tim Beckham
- 50% Buster Posey
- 46% Pedro Alvarez
- 44% Pablo Sandoval
- 43% Max Scherzer
- 43% Andrew McCutchen
- 42% Brandon Allen
- 36% Kyle Blanks
- 35% Sean Rodriguez
- 35% Wade Davis
2007
- 76% Justin Upton
- 63% Jay Bruce
- 46% Mike Moustakas
- 44% Asdrubal Cabrera
- 43% Yovani Gallardo
- 43% Joey Votto
- 40% David Price
- 36% Colby Rasmus
- 36% Madison Bumgarner
- 35% Will Startup
- 35% Andy LaRoche
- 33% Carlos Triunfel
2006
- 35% Adam Jones
- 63% Alex Gordon
- 52% Howie Kendrick
- 50% Matt Garza
- 44% Alexi Casilla
- 43% Gregor Blanco
- 43% Jered Weaver
- 43% Josh Fields
- 42% Matt Kemp
- 40% Brad Lincoln
- 38% Tim Lincecum
- 36% Billy Butler